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Grade inflation sentences to ponder - Marginal REVOLUTION

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Next, we consider the effects of grade inflation on future outcomes. Passing grade inflation reduces the likelihood of being held back, increases high school graduation, and increases initial enrollment in two-year colleges. Mean grade inflation reduces future test scores, reduces the likelihood of graduating from high school, reduces college enrollment, and ultimately reduces earnings.

Here is the full paper by Jeffrey T. Denning, Rachel Nesbit, Nolan Pope, and Merrill Warnick.  Via Kris Gulati.

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mareino
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Washington, District of Columbia
freeAgent
2 hours ago
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Los Angeles, CA
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Signal creator Moxie Marlinspike wants to do for AI what he did for messaging - Ars Technica

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Moxie Marlinspike—the pseudonym of an engineer who set a new standard for private messaging with the creation of the Signal Messenger—is now aiming to revolutionize AI chatbots in a similar way.

His latest brainchild is Confer, an open source AI assistant that provides strong assurances that user data is unreadable to the platform operator, hackers, law enforcement, or any other party other than account holders. The service—including its large language models and back-end components—runs entirely on open source software that users can cryptographically verify is in place.

Data and conversations originating from users and the resulting responses from the LLMs are encrypted in a trusted execution environment (TEE) that prevents even server administrators from peeking at or tampering with them. Conversations are stored by Confer in the same encrypted form, which uses a key that remains securely on users’ devices.

Like Signal, the under-the-hood workings of Confer are elegant in their design and simplicity. Signal was the first end-user privacy tool that made using it a snap. Prior to that, using PGP email or other options to establish encrypted channels between two users was a cumbersome process that was easy to botch. Signal broke that mold. Key management was no longer a task users had to worry about. Signal was designed to prevent even the platform operators from peering into messages or identifying users’ real-world identities.

“Inherent data collectors”

All major platforms are required to turn over user data to law enforcement or private parties in a lawsuit when either provides a valid subpoena. Even when users opt out of having their data stored long term, parties to a lawsuit can compel the platform to store it, as the world learned last May when a court ordered OpenAI to preserve all ChatGPT users’ logs—including deleted chats and sensitive chats logged through its API business offering. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has said such rulings mean even psychotherapy sessions on the platform may not stay private. Another carve out to opting out: AI platforms like Google Gemini may have humans read chats.

Data privacy expert Em (she keeps her last name off the Internet) called AI assistants the “archnemesis” of data privacy because their utility relies on assembling massive amounts of data from myriad sources, including individuals.

“AI models are inherent data collectors,” she told Ars. “They rely on large data collection for training, improvements, operations, and customizations. More often than not, this data is collected without clear and informed consent (from unknowing training subjects or from platform users), and is sent to and accessed by a private company with many incentives to share and monetize this data.”

The lack of user-control is especially problematic given the nature of LLM interactions, Marlinspike says. Users often treat dialogue as an intimate conversation. Users share their thoughts, fears, transgressions, business dealings, and deepest, darkest secrets as if AI assistants are trusted confidants or personal journals. The interactions are fundamentally different from traditional web search queries, which usually adhere to a transactional model of keywords in and links out.

He likens AI use to confessing into a “data lake.”

Awaking from the nightmare that is today’s AI landscape

In response, Marlinspike has developed and is now trialing Confer. In much the way Signal uses encryption to make messages readable only to parties participating in a conversation, Confer protects user prompts, AI responses, and all data included in them. And just like Signal, there’s no way to tie individual users to their real-world identity through their email address, IP address, or other details.

“The character of the interaction is fundamentally different because it’s a private interaction,” Marlinspike told Ars. “It’s been really interesting and encouraging and amazing to hear stories from people who have used Confer and had life-changing conversations, in part because they haven’t felt free to include information in those conversations with sources like ChatGPT or they had insights using data that they weren’t really free to share with ChatGPT before but can using an environment like Confer.”

One of the main ingredients of Confer encryption is passkeys. The industry-wide standard generates a 32-byte encryption keypair that’s unique to each service a user logs in to. The public key is sent to the server. The private key is stored only on the user device, inside protected storage hardware that hackers (even those with physical access) can’t access. Passkeys provide two-factor authentication and can be configured to log in to an account with a fingerprint, face scan (both of which also stay securely on a device), or a device unlock PIN or passcode.

The private key allows the device to log in to Confer and encrypt all input and output with encryption that’s widely believed to be impossible to break. That allows users to store conversations on Confer servers with confidence that they can’t be read by anyone other than themselves. The storage allows conversations to sync across other devices the user owns. The code making this all work is available for anyone to inspect. It looks like this:


  const assertion = await navigator.credentials.get({
    mediation: "optional",
    publicKey: {
      challenge: crypto.getRandomValues(new Uint8Array(32)),
      allowCredentials: [{ id: credId, type: "public-key" }],
      userVerification: "required",
      extensions: { prf: { eval: { first: new Uint8Array(salt) } } }
    }
  }) as PublicKeyCredential;

  const { prf } = assertion.getClientExtensionResults();
  const rawKey  = new Uint8Array(prf.results.first); 

This robust internal engine is fronted by a user interface (shown in the two images above) that’s deceptively simple. In just two strokes, a user is logged in, and all previous chats are decrypted. These chats are then available to any device logged in to the same account. This way, Confer can sync chats without compromising privacy. The ample 32 bytes of key material allow the private key to change regularly, a feature that allows for forward secrecy, meaning that in the event a key is compromised, an attacker cannot read previous or future chats.

The other main Confer ingredient is a TEE on the platform servers. TEEs encrypt all data and code flowing through the server CPU, protecting them from being read or modified by someone with administrative access to the machine. The Confer TEE also provides remote attestation. Remote attestation is a digital certificate sent by the server that cryptographically verifies that data and software are running inside the TEE and lists all software running on it.

On Confer, remote attestation allows anyone to reproduce the bit-by-bit outputs that confirm that the publicly available proxy and image software—and only that software—is running on the server. To further verify Confer is running as promised, each release is digitally signed and published in a transparency log.

Native support for Confer is available in the most recent versions of macOS, iOS, and Android. On Windows, users must install a third-party authenticator. Linux support also doesn’t exist, although this extension bridges that gap.

There are other private LLMs, but none from the big players

Another publicly available LLM offering E2EE is Lumo, provided by Proton, a European company that’s behind the popular encrypted email service. It adopts the same encryption engine used by Proton Mail, Drive, and Calendar. The internals of the engine are considerably more complicated than Confer because they rely on a series of both symmetric and asymmetric keys. The end result for the user is largely the same, however.

Once a user authenticates to their account, Proton says, all conversations, data, and metadata is encrypted with a symmetrical key that only the user has. Users can opt to store the encrypted data on Proton servers for device syncing or have it wiped immediately after the conversation is finished.

A third LLM provider promising privacy is Venice. It stores all data locally, meaning on the user device. No data is stored on the remote server.

Most of the big LLM platforms offer a means for users to exempt their conversations and data for marketing and training purposes. But as noted earlier, these promises often come with major carve-outs. Besides selected review by humans, personal data may still be used to enforce terms of service or for other internal purposes, even when users have opted out of default storage.

Given today’s legal landscape—which allows most data stored online to be obtained with a subpoena—and the regular occurrence of blockbuster data breaches by hackers, there can be no reasonable expectation that personal data remains private.

It would be great if big providers offered end-to-end encryption protections, but there’s currently no indication they plan to do so. Until then, a handful of smaller alternatives will keep user data out of the ever-growing data lake.

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freeAgent
2 hours ago
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Ex-CEO of Paul Newman-founded nonprofit for sick kids embezzled over $5 million, prosecutors say

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A former executive of a nonprofit camp for children with serious medical conditions is accused of embezzling more than $5 million from the organization and tampering with computer records to hide his crimes, according to prosecutors.

Lake Hughes-based organization the Painted Turtle, co-founded by actor Paul Newman in 1999, is a year-round camp that offers free programming for children struggling with medical challenges and relies on donations from individuals, corporations and foundations.

Offering outdoor activities and in-hospital games, the Painted Turtle describes itself as place where youth with life-threatening and chronic illnesses can “sing, dance, laugh, grow and discover their potential.”

In a statement released Monday, the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s office said former Painted Turtle chief executive Christopher L. Butler faces 15 felony counts, including grand theft and fraud. If convicted on all charges, Butler could serve more than 18 years in prison.

The $5.2-million fraud, prosecutors say, took place over the course of his seven-year tenure. A spokesperson for the Painted Turtle said Butler left the organization around July, and the district attorney filed the case in late December.

Prior to leaving the organization, Butler had acted as the organization’s controller, or supervisor of accounting, which would allow him to conceal his alleged embezzlement over the years, according to the official complaint.

Prosecutors say that a controller hired after Butler’s departure was the first to notify authorities of the alleged fraud.

In the complaint, prosecutors say that Butler embezzled the nonprofit of hundreds of thousands each year since he was hired, steadily increasing his illicit take to the highest point in 2022, when he allegedly stole nearly $1 million.

Butler wrote thousands in fraudulent checks in addition to the existing embezzlement, the complaint says.

In the last year of his suspected scheme, authorities accuse Butler of changing data on company computers to access money and destroy evidence relating to his fraud.

The fraud fell apart in August, when authorities say the new controller discovered “irregularities” in the financial records dating back to 2018, Butler’s first year with the organization.

That month, prosecutors say, Butler allegedly took drastic action that led to a grand theft charge: stealing the organization’s computers. The complaint also details that an additional $50,000 worth of the nonprofit’s property was stolen or damaged during this time.

Butler is being held on a $835,000 bail with his arraignment set for Thursday.

The Painted Turtle said in a statement that “serious financial crimes were committed by a former employee.” The organization says that it conducted investigations by independent auditors and cooperated with law enforcement.

“This was a shocking and saddening discovery for us. Our primary commitment is always to the children and families that we serve,” the organization stated.

The Painted Turtle spokesperson Glenn Bozarth says that the nonprofit plans to continue its programming after the investigation, although the fraud has left behind questions about whether lost funds and damages could be recovered.

“We all have the same question,” Bozarth said. “How can someone do this?”

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freeAgent
17 hours ago
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D&D General - You Can Now Get Mike Schley's Official Map of Faerûn

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Available from his online store is Mike Schley's official map from the D&D supplement ‘Heroes of Faerûn’ in print or digital format.
This poster sized atlas of The Forgotten Realms was commissioned for the 2025 D&D supplement Heroes of Faerûn, Prints are available on poster, satin photo, or textured fine art paper in a variety of sizes from 8"x12" to 48"x72". There are even vinyl banner options intended for in-game use that work great with wet-erase markers!
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freeAgent
18 hours ago
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Cool.
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GoFundMe Ignores Own Rules by Hosting a Legal-Defense Fund for the ICE Agent Who Killed Renee Good

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The fundraiser for the ICE agent in the Renee Good killing has stayed online in seeming breach of GoFundMe’s own terms of service, prompting questions about selective enforcement.
Photograph: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

The crowdfunding platform GoFundMe is allowing a fundraising campaign tied to the potential legal defense of an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent who fatally shot a civilian to remain online, despite company rules barring fundraisers connected to violent crimes and past enforcement actions against similar campaigns.

The fundraiser, titled “ICE OFFICER Jonathan Ross,” seeks at least $550,000 to support potential legal expenses for the ICE agent identified as having shot and killed Renee Nicole Good, a mother of three and widow of a military veteran, during an encounter with immigration agents in Minneapolis.

The officer was first identified as Jonathan Ross, 43, by the Minnesota Star Tribune.

The GoFundMe campaign’s stated purpose—raising money for legal services following a killing—directly conflicts with GoFundMe’s terms of service, which specifically bars fundraisers that are intended to support the legal defense of people accused of financial or violent crimes.

GoFundMe has not publicly explained why the Ross fundraiser remains active despite its terms of service stating users agree not to “use the Service or Platform to raise funds” for the “the legal defense of financial and violent crimes, including those related to money laundering, murder, robbery, assault, battery, sex crimes or crimes against minors.”

Ross has not been formally charged with any crime. The shooting is being investigated exclusively by the FBI after federal authorities effectively blocked Minnesota investigators from participating, prompting the state attorney general and Hennepin County attorney to launch a parallel effort to collect evidence independently.

In an email, a GoFundMe spokesperson told WIRED on Sunday night that it was in the process of reviewing all fundraisers tied to the shooting. “During the review process, all funds remain safely held by our payment processors,” the spokesperson said. “GoFundMe’s Terms of Service prohibit fundraisers that raise money for the legal defense of anyone formally charged with a violent crime. Any campaigns that violate this policy will be removed.”

The company added that it was working directly with the organizer of the Ross fundraiser to “gather additional information.” The organizer is identified on the site as Clyde Emmons of Mount Forest, Michigan. WIRED could not immediately reach Emmons or confirm his identity.

On Sunday night, Emmons’ fundraiser stated that “funds will go to help pay for any legal services this officer needs.” That language was removed after WIRED’s inquiry and replaced by Monday morning with the phrase, “Funds will go to help him.”

GoFundMe did not respond to multiple follow up requests for comment, including questions as to whether it had advised the organizer to change the description to better comport with its rules.

Despite the changes, several slides in a carousel at the top of the Ross fundraising page—which remain active at time of writing—make the purpose of the fundraising explicitly clear: “Give to cover Jonathan’s legal defense” and “Officer Jonathan Ross’s legal defense fund pays attorney fees and court costs.”

GoFundMe’s inaction contrasts with its handling of earlier cases involving law enforcement officers and civilians killed during encounters with police.

In 2015, GoFundMe removed a Baltimore City Fraternal Order of Police fundraiser for Baltimore police officers charged in the death of Freddie Gray, citing violations of its rules against supporting legal defenses in violent cases. That same year, the platform removed a campaign for a South Carolina officer charged in the fatal shooting of Walter Scott.

Said a company spokeswoman at the time of the Gray fundraiser: “GoFundMe cannot be used to benefit those who are charged with serious violations of the law. The campaign clearly stated that the money raised would be used to assist the officers with their legal fees, which is a direct violation of GoFundMe’s terms."

Good, 37, was gunned down during a January 7 encounter with ICE agents in Minneapolis. Video recorded by bystanders shows Good in a dark red SUV reversing as masked agents approach. One agent, identified in the press as Ross, is shown circling the vehicle with his cell phone raised, then stepping into position almost directly in front of the idling SUV before firing as it moves past him.

The video evidence sharply conflicts with public accounts offered by senior Trump administration officials, including DHS statements describing Good as a “domestic terrorist” who “weaponized” her vehicle, as well as President Donald Trump’s claim that “she ran him over.”

State officials said over the weekend that the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension had been cut off from the crime scene and no longer had access to key evidence, including Good’s vehicle and witness interviews. Local prosecutors claimed that without access to the FBI’s case file, it may be impossible for the state to assess whether charges are warranted, even though the shooting is well documented, occurred in Hennepin County, and involves a Minnesota resident.

A separate fundraiser for Good’s widow and family has currently raised more than $1.5 million.

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freeAgent
20 hours ago
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MacKenzie Scott Donates $45 Million to the Trevor Project

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Jeff Bezos’ ex-wife has made a donation to the LGBTQ+ advocacy group that the organization calls “transformational.”
Photo-Illustration: WIRED Staff; Getty Images

On Monday, billionaire philanthropist MacKenzie Scott donated $45 million to The Trevor Project, a nonprofit that serves LGBTQ+ youth. The large gift comes just months after the Trump administration shut down counseling services for queer youth through the federally funded 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline, for which the The Trevor Project administered services.

In a blog post Jaymes Black, CEO of The Trevor Project, called the donation “transformational,” describing Scott’s gift as the biggest single donation the charitable organization has ever received in its 27 years of operating. Scott previously donated $6 million to the nonprofit during the first Trump administration.

Scott, who divorced Amazon founder Jeff Bezos in 2019, is a prolific philanthropist who has recently ramped up her charitable donations. In 2025, Scott gave over $7 billion to nonprofit organizations.

“At a time when many LGBTQ+ young people are facing heightened stigma, political hostility, and mental health challenges, MacKenzie Scott’s support sends a powerful message,” Black wrote. “LGBTQ+ young people matter, and the world is full of people fighting for their safety and well-being.”

According to a Trevor Project survey concerning LGBTQ+ youth mental health in the US, around 45 percent of LGBTQ+ youth ages 13 to 24 have considered suicide. The organization aims to help those disproportionately at risk.

Following Trump’s election in 2024, the Trevor Project saw a 700 percent increase in calls, chats, and texts. It saw a 33 percent bump in outreach following the inauguration last year, and also sees upticks following events like last year’s ruling in the US v. Skrmetti case, which upheld Tennessee’s ban on gender-affirming care for minors.

Black sees Scott’s gift as “a powerful step toward building on our sustainable capacity” as the group works to expand and serve more LGBTQ+ youth around the globe and innovate to make sure services are reaching them when they are in need of help.

“Over the coming months, we will road-map a strategic and thoughtful investment plan focused on strengthening our core crisis services, improving long-term sustainability, and accelerating our progress toward a world where every LGBTQ+ young person knows they are loved and supported,” Black said in the blog post.

Scott’s other recent gifts to charitable organizations include multimillion-dollar donations to groups working on environmental protection and public education.

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freeAgent
1 day ago
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That’s not even a whole Bezos-Sanchez wedding.
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